Pros and Cons - BTT Title or Higher Chance for Sweet Sixteen?

In a perfect world, MSU will make a run through the upcoming Big Ten Tournament, exacting revenge on an Indiana team that has managed to sweep them during the regular season (not possible anymore after OSU took them out since first writing this), scoring a solid win against a NET boosting opponent such as Wisconsin or Maryland, and then complete a 3-0 season sweep over the Wolverines, followed by two solid wins in the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament to wrap up their first Sweet 16 season since 2015. However, as any longtime college basketball fan will tell you, March hardly goes according to the best laid plans. As a result, I pose the following question for you…would you rather MSU win the Big Ten Tournament, or lose early but potentially be in better position to reach the second weekend of the NCAA tournament this year? Pro BTT Title: The odds are against MSU winning the NCAA tournament, but they still could earn a trophy, rings and (if MSU hung banners for these) a banner by winning the Big Ten Tournament. A tournament win this year would be MSU’s first since 2016, end a 2 year run of titles by their rival UM, and add one more to their already conference leading history of tournament titles (currently at 5). It would validate a Big Ten regular season that, while admittedly impressive due to pulling it out while not having their non-conference starting five in a single regular season game (McQuaid missed the first two conference games in December), still left something to be desired when you consider that it was shared with a Purdue team that likely is worse than their team from a year ago and included three downright shocking losses (twice to Indiana and once to Illinois). There then is the argument for trying to play your best entering the NCAA tournament. Of Tom Izzo’s five previous Big Ten titles, four have been springboards to at least the Sweet Sixteen with the only exception being the 2016 fiasco against Middle Tennessee State. A one seed is still at least arguably in play for the Spartans, and a loss to Indiana or Ohio State in the first round could arguably put them at risk to fall to the three seed line. Three of the last four teams to win the title advanced to at least the Sweet Sixteen (UW in 2015, UM in 2017 & 2018). Finally, as Nick Ward makes his way back from his hand fracture injury, conditioning will likely be his biggest hurdle to clear if he is going to return to being an All-Big Ten caliber contributor, and no better way to build conditioning then 2-3 games before the Big Dance begins. All of the above are strongly in favor of MSU going full blast in an attempt to lock up the BTT title… Pro NCAA Sweet 16 First let’s discuss NCAA seeding. There is no guarantee that the NCAA tournament selection committee will take the winner of the BTT title into account as it is set to end an hour or so before the official bracket is announced. In fact, if recent history is any indication, it seems more likely than not that a Big Ten Title would do little to change the Spartan’s seeding. Winning the title in 2016 did not keep them from being seeded on the 2 line, and UM winning in 2017 did not keep it from being seeded as a 7, while in 2018, they were a 3 seed and lost out on being placed in Detroit to a MSU team they beat the day before (not that it ended up helping MSU). Putting that aside, there is a genuine question as to whether or not being a 1 seed would result in a more favorable seeding. If we assume that UVA is locked into the 1 seed in the East, and despite their recent loss Gonzaga is still the 1 seed in the West, then that leaves being seeded in the South in the state of Kentucky where UK is almost certainly going to be as either a 1 or 2 seed, or in the Midwest with whichever ACC team is left off the one line (as UNC or Duke will not be placed in the same bracket as each other or UVA to avoid inter-conference match-ups prior to the Final Four). Additionally, while MSU has certainly had success in most years after a BTT win, they also have managed to make at least the Sweet Sixteen in 8 seasons(!) despite getting knocked out of the tournament before the title game (98, 01, 03, 05, 08, 09, 10, 13), with a final four appearance added on in 2015 after losing to UW in the finals. At least one of those teams in 2005 seemed to galvanize after being upset early in the tournament and use it to fuel their tournament run. Finally, there is the wear and tear question as it pertains to this specific team. With Josh Langford gone since late December and injuries of varying severity to McQuaid, Aherns and Ward the strain of extended minutes has had to be adding up on players such as Winston and Tillman. It is not a secret that Winston has been playing through achy knees for more or less the entire Big Ten season, and three games in three days right before the NCAA tournament is going to likely stretch him to his utmost limit. Would getting knocked out early but ensuring an extra day or two of rest allow for a better probability that the team would be at full strength in the tournament? No way to know for sure, but it would be the primary silver lining if the team gets bounced before Sunday. Conclusion Obviously all of the above is highly speculative and/or based on past results which are not necessarily indicative of future outcomes, and in reality the Spartans could just as easily get knocked out early or go on deep runs in both tournaments. Every Spartan fan should root for their team to win each and every game left on the schedule, as it is officially one and done time from here on out. Having said that, the above could serve as a series of silver linings or a handy rebuttal when your favorite UM fan friend inevitably calls out Izzo as somehow being a fraud in March if only one of the above scenarios occurs.